Monday, December 8, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
What could be bigger than the financial crisis
Michael O. Leavitt, the Bush administration’s secretary of health and human services, said in a September speech that, at its present growth rate, health care spending “could potentially drag our nation into a financial crisis that makes our major subprime mortgage crisis look like a warm summer rain.”
-British Balance Benefit vs. Cost of Latest Drugs
Lessons in Study Tours- don't get carried away
Second, in determining study tour locations, the need for showcasing state-of-the-art technology and procedures should be balanced against their relevance and replicability in the participant country. While the 4-day study tour to Singapore was well organized and comprehensive, some aspects were not relevant in the Kyrgyz context given the vast difference in the levels of development of the two countries, and the resource and capacity gaps.
-Capacity Building and Institutional Strengthening for the Customs Modernization and Infrastructure Development
Quote of the Day
“These errors make us look either incompetent at credit analysis or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both.”
— A Moody’s managing director responding anonymously to an internal management survey, September 2007
— A Moody’s managing director responding anonymously to an internal management survey, September 2007
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Assorted
THE AGE OF MASS INTELLIGENCE
Things to Read by Keynes
Who is to Blame for Climate Change? Does it Even Matter?
Moderate Muslim Malaysia: What I Saw
John R. Commons and the Origins of Legal Realism; or, the Other Tragedy of the Commons
Beetles, Frogs, and Lawyers: The Scientific Demarcation Problem in the Gilson Theory of Value Creation
Politics isn't about Policy
Judging National Security Post-9/11: An Empirical Investigation
Principles for Bailout Management
Harvard Lightning Rod Finds Path to Renewal With Obama
Team of Heavyweights
Things to Read by Keynes
Who is to Blame for Climate Change? Does it Even Matter?
Moderate Muslim Malaysia: What I Saw
John R. Commons and the Origins of Legal Realism; or, the Other Tragedy of the Commons
Beetles, Frogs, and Lawyers: The Scientific Demarcation Problem in the Gilson Theory of Value Creation
Politics isn't about Policy
Judging National Security Post-9/11: An Empirical Investigation
Principles for Bailout Management
Harvard Lightning Rod Finds Path to Renewal With Obama
Team of Heavyweights
Quote the Day
Wil Wilkinson writes;
Larissa MacFarquhar appears to have limited critical capacity when it comes to political or economic ideas, but her profile of Naomi Klein is nevertheless insightful. Klein comes off as an incoherent bundle of reflexes. She has passions, prejudices, animosities, an appealing streak of punk nihilism, a cynical and savvy strategic sense, and no ideas. Klein and her husband, Avi Lewis, come off as so saturated in familial left-wing politics that their ideology, such as it is, seems less a set of propositions that might be true or false than an ethnic identity or tribal commitment that can neither be chosen nor forsaken. Bred-in-the-bone cultural assumptions rarely cohere when articulated; their logic is emotional. Which explains how Klein can bounce so blithely and unintelligibly from a milquetoast Canadian faith in government to a petulant, anarchic distrust of large institutions.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Rising Demand for Rare Maps as Global Economy Is `Deteriorating Quickly'
Assorted Podcasts;
UC's Hamilton Says Global Economy Is `Deteriorating Quickly'
Arader, Art Dealer, Sees Rising Demand for Rare Maps
W. Graham Arader III of Arader Galleries, a rare map dealer, talks and Seymour Schwartz's book, ``The Mismapping of America.''
Grant Sees U.S. Working Toward `Disastrous Inflation'
James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about his new book, ``Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond,'' inflation risk in the U.S., business failures and financial history, and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The Age of Austerity: Keynes and the Crisis
Speakers: Lord Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, University of Warwick, politician and prize-winning biographer of JM Keynes; Martin Wolf, Associate Editor, Financial Times; Dr Andrew Lilico, Managing Director, Europe Economics; Lord Meghnad Desai, economist, politician and author of Marx's Revenge: The Resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of Statist Socialism; John Naish, journalist and author.
Advising America`s Next President: The Future of American Leadership
Advising America`s Next President: Fixing Global Finance
The Economics of the Recession
Gut Feelings: short cuts to better decision making
From Poverty to Power: What will be the role of aid in 2020?
Generation Y and the financial crisis
The history of trade
William Bernstein in his new book A Splendid Exchange - how trade shaped the world argues that while most history is about raiding, in the form of wars, it ought to pay more attention to trading.
Myths of the Great Depression
The recent collapse in the value of the stock market has certainly evoked comparisons with earlier eras. But was it greed that caused the stock market in 1929 to overshoot then crash, or was it easy credit?
Andrew Wilson examines some of myths about the Great Depression.
Could the publication practices of scientific journals be distorting the scientific endeavour?
Economic gangsters
Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel spent years investigating the dark side of global economic development. They combined economic analysis with detective work and followed the foreign aid money trail into the hands of corrupt governments and shady underworld cheats. They labelled these characters economic gangsters. So who are they and why do they matter?
Stormy weather: climate change and Tuvalu
Climate pricing
As a resource economist, Michael Hanemann deals with the supply, demand and allocation of resources. This subfield of economics is interested in the primary sector of the economy, and is trying to better understand the role of all natural resources in the economy and plan how to manage them.
A miracle in the Indian Ocean
The Maldives have been advertised as a tourist paradise but, behind the luxurious image, the lives of its people have been crushed by an autocratic president. Last month everything changed, when the first ever democratic elections were held.
Boom and Bust
Extraordinary Cases in psychology: Part 1 of 4 - The story of Kitty Genovese
Extraordinary Cases in psychology: Part 2 of 4 - The wild boy of Aveyron
Extraordinary Cases in Psychology: Part 3 of 4—The man with the hole in his head
The philosophy of cold hard cash
Scapegoats and sacrifices - Rene Girard
Martha Nussbaum - Part 1 - The Social Contract
Martha Nussbaum - Part 2 - Thinking about Animals
Health care in the next US administration
Testosterone and low female libido
The meaning of life
I wish I had become a scientist
The Managing Director of Centurion Enterprise Management Services in Victoria, Dr Ron Harper, wonders what might have been if he had chosen a career as a scientist. However, he chose a career in management and today tells us what makes a good and efficient manager
Paracelsus
He became known as the Luther of medicine for his reformist medical practices, but Paracelsus, who was born in Switzerland in 1493, was also a religious man
Tel Dan and the Golden Calf
In northern Israel, the late archaeologist Avraham Biran discovered the ancient site of Dan, settled by the warrior tribe of Dan. Here, Biran discovered an ancient Canaanite Gate, the altar to the Golden Calf, and the only stone inscription of "The House of David". Archaeological tour guide, Walter Zanger tells the story on location
A Sufi Sheikh in Jerusalem
Peter Stothard, editor of the Times Literary Supplement
The poetry of Robert Adamson
The 'Huck Finn of the Hawkesbury' is how Robert Adamson was described by one reviewer when his first book was published in 1970. He's one of Australia's leading contemporary poets and a successful writer, editor and publisher. His autobiography Inside Out won the New South Wales Premier's History Award, and he received the Christopher Brennan Award for lifetime achievement in literature. Robert Adamson's new collection of poetry The Golden Bird brings together the best of his published work as well as many new poems.
UC's Hamilton Says Global Economy Is `Deteriorating Quickly'
Arader, Art Dealer, Sees Rising Demand for Rare Maps
W. Graham Arader III of Arader Galleries, a rare map dealer, talks and Seymour Schwartz's book, ``The Mismapping of America.''
Grant Sees U.S. Working Toward `Disastrous Inflation'
James Grant, editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, talks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about his new book, ``Mr. Market Miscalculates: The Bubble Years and Beyond,'' inflation risk in the U.S., business failures and financial history, and Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The Age of Austerity: Keynes and the Crisis
Speakers: Lord Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy, University of Warwick, politician and prize-winning biographer of JM Keynes; Martin Wolf, Associate Editor, Financial Times; Dr Andrew Lilico, Managing Director, Europe Economics; Lord Meghnad Desai, economist, politician and author of Marx's Revenge: The Resurgence of Capitalism and the Death of Statist Socialism; John Naish, journalist and author.
Advising America`s Next President: The Future of American Leadership
Advising America`s Next President: Fixing Global Finance
The Economics of the Recession
Gut Feelings: short cuts to better decision making
From Poverty to Power: What will be the role of aid in 2020?
Generation Y and the financial crisis
The history of trade
William Bernstein in his new book A Splendid Exchange - how trade shaped the world argues that while most history is about raiding, in the form of wars, it ought to pay more attention to trading.
Myths of the Great Depression
The recent collapse in the value of the stock market has certainly evoked comparisons with earlier eras. But was it greed that caused the stock market in 1929 to overshoot then crash, or was it easy credit?
Andrew Wilson examines some of myths about the Great Depression.
Could the publication practices of scientific journals be distorting the scientific endeavour?
Economic gangsters
Raymond Fisman and Edward Miguel spent years investigating the dark side of global economic development. They combined economic analysis with detective work and followed the foreign aid money trail into the hands of corrupt governments and shady underworld cheats. They labelled these characters economic gangsters. So who are they and why do they matter?
Stormy weather: climate change and Tuvalu
Climate pricing
As a resource economist, Michael Hanemann deals with the supply, demand and allocation of resources. This subfield of economics is interested in the primary sector of the economy, and is trying to better understand the role of all natural resources in the economy and plan how to manage them.
A miracle in the Indian Ocean
The Maldives have been advertised as a tourist paradise but, behind the luxurious image, the lives of its people have been crushed by an autocratic president. Last month everything changed, when the first ever democratic elections were held.
Boom and Bust
Extraordinary Cases in psychology: Part 1 of 4 - The story of Kitty Genovese
Extraordinary Cases in psychology: Part 2 of 4 - The wild boy of Aveyron
Extraordinary Cases in Psychology: Part 3 of 4—The man with the hole in his head
The philosophy of cold hard cash
Scapegoats and sacrifices - Rene Girard
Martha Nussbaum - Part 1 - The Social Contract
Martha Nussbaum - Part 2 - Thinking about Animals
Health care in the next US administration
Testosterone and low female libido
The meaning of life
I wish I had become a scientist
The Managing Director of Centurion Enterprise Management Services in Victoria, Dr Ron Harper, wonders what might have been if he had chosen a career as a scientist. However, he chose a career in management and today tells us what makes a good and efficient manager
Paracelsus
He became known as the Luther of medicine for his reformist medical practices, but Paracelsus, who was born in Switzerland in 1493, was also a religious man
Tel Dan and the Golden Calf
In northern Israel, the late archaeologist Avraham Biran discovered the ancient site of Dan, settled by the warrior tribe of Dan. Here, Biran discovered an ancient Canaanite Gate, the altar to the Golden Calf, and the only stone inscription of "The House of David". Archaeological tour guide, Walter Zanger tells the story on location
A Sufi Sheikh in Jerusalem
Peter Stothard, editor of the Times Literary Supplement
The poetry of Robert Adamson
The 'Huck Finn of the Hawkesbury' is how Robert Adamson was described by one reviewer when his first book was published in 1970. He's one of Australia's leading contemporary poets and a successful writer, editor and publisher. His autobiography Inside Out won the New South Wales Premier's History Award, and he received the Christopher Brennan Award for lifetime achievement in literature. Robert Adamson's new collection of poetry The Golden Bird brings together the best of his published work as well as many new poems.
Dept. of Good Practice in Doing Business
An effective way to address concerns of the private sector in Cambodia
The government of Cambodia has an interesting and innovative method of identifying issues of concern from the private sector and addressing them– directly communicating through the Government Private Sector Forum...
The forum is important because of the resulting decisions. The World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC), which provides financial and technical support for the secretariat of the forum, conducted an evaluation (pdf) last year that showed very high returns to their support. It is also important because of the forum it provides for discussion. In one instance last week, there was a healthy exchange of ideas about the marked slowdown of economic growth in Cambodia. I think the meeting is also important for the private sector to hold the government accountable for its past decisions and to work toward a better investment climate.
Design of Fiscal Rules
On design, it is useful to start the discussion with a simple comparison between budget balance rules that are combined with expenditure rules and those which are not. Historical observation is consistent with the regression results in suggesting that in general budget-balance rules that are not combined with expenditure rules are less effective. A striking example of this is the United States experience: neither the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings (GRH) Act of 1985 nor its revised version in 1987 succeeded in significantly reducing the fiscal deficit.16 A further example is the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which has not so far led to sustainable positions being attained, notably in large EU countries. On the other hand, when the United States turned to an expenditure-based rule, the Budget Enforcement Act (1990-2002),17 a surplus was achieved and maintained for a time. Some EU countries (e.g. Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Finland and Czech Republic) supplemented the SGP by national rules (in most cases including some expenditure ceilings) and also enjoyed success. There were, however, some failures. For instance, after France introduced multi-year objectives for real government expenditure in 1998, its structural fiscal position deteriorated continuously until 2003, at which time it came under the European excessive deficit procedure.
There is no one-size-fits-all rule applicable to every country but there seems to be a consensus that, to be effective, rules should have several features. In particular, they should be simple to manage, understand and monitor, while flexible enough to respond to the cycle. Against this background, there are several features of expenditure rules that can explain why they have often been associated with success: not only do they exclude cyclically volatile revenues but they can be (and often are) designed to let economic stabilisers work in a downturn and to save windfall gains during an upturn; 19 they are typically more transparent than all but the simplest budget balance rule; they allow spending ministers/ministries to be held accountable;20 and they make the availability of financial resources predictable for policymakers and programme managers.
An important issue in designing fiscal rules is their possible impact on the quality of public expenditure. Both expenditure rules covering total spending and budget balance rules can potentially cause allocative inefficiencies by biasing spending towards items that are politically sensitive and difficult to cut.21 Typically governments have responded by excluding some capital items from overall spending (as done notably by Golden rules in the United Kingdom and Germany), but this may make the rule more difficult to monitor as well as easier to circumvent. Moreover, there is an element of arbitrariness in excluding physical investment from the rule but not current spending with investment attributes, such as spending on education.
The time period over which the target is to be met is also important, not least in providing flexibility to deal with cyclical fluctuations. Although enforcing the rule on a year-by-year basis appears strict, many countries do just that, with varying degrees of success. Switzerland is an example of a country combining year-by-year enforcement with cyclical flexibility by targeting a balanced budget in cyclically adjusted terms. The United Kingdom pursues another approach: its budget-balance rule22 holds over the business cycle. Such a procedure, however, provides less accurate short-term guidance. As well, rules defined over the cycle or embodying some kind of cyclical adjustment require a subjective23 assessment to be made about the cycle’s start and end dates and/or the size of the output gap, which (together with data revisions) creates a degree of uncertainty about whether or not the rule was (or will be) met. The same objections apply to rules such as the SGP that allow normal procedures to be waived in conditions of pronounced cyclical weakness.
-Fiscal consolidation: lessons from past experience
Trade is declining
'We may have the first decline in trade since 1982 next year, and in many parts of the world, remittances are also drying up,” warned last month World Bank President Robert Zoellick just ahead of the G20 Summit in Washington D.C. “The most vulnerable in society, as always, are the ones at most risk.”
World trade has been an engine of the world economy, with developing countries posting nearly 8 percent growth and attracting a record $1 trillion in net private capital flows in 2007. But in 2009, world trade could decline for the first time since the eighties. The global economy is forecast to grow by only 1 percent, with developing country growth expected to fall to 4.5 percent from a previously projected 6.5 percent. The World Bank estimates each 1 percent drop in growth could trap another 20 million people in poverty.
“World trade, an engine of the world economy, is now dropping due to falling global demand and lack of trade credit,” said Danny Leipziger, World Bank’s Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management. “If you can’t get financing to ship your goods, exports will slow down and worsen the economic climate.”
-Trade Is Key to Overcome Economic Crisis
How is the current economic crisis affecting you?
Asks Christina Romer, Director of the Council of Economic Advisors
Affordable Computing for Schools in Developing Countries
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO): A Study of Models of Affordable Computing for Schools in Developing Countries
"Total cost of ownership" (TCO) is often underestimated, sometimes grossly, when calculating costs of ICT in education initiatives in developing countries. Estimates of initial costs to purchase equipment to overall costs over time vary widely; typically they lie between 10-25% of total cost. That said, there is a dearth of reliable data, and useful tools, to help guide education decisionmakers in their assessments of the true costs of educational technology initiatives.
A recent whitepaper from Vital Wave Consulting, "Affordable Computing for Schools in Developing Countries: A Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Model for Education Officials", and accompanying case study of ICT in education initiatives in India , provide further insight and perspective on this important and often controversial issue. The white paper discusses key issues related to technology use in education and presents several major findings, including:
* Academic research and private-sector investment decisions indicate that computers in schools contribute to improved academic outcomes, boost a nation’s economic competitiveness, and attract job-creating economic investments.
* Governments need to consider the entire cost of school computing solutions, rather than merely the initial expenses. A total cost of ownership model takes into account recurrent and hidden costs such as teacher training, support and maintenance, and the cost of replacing hardware over a five-year period.
* Support and training are recurrent costs that constitute two of the three largest costs in the total cost of ownership model. They are greater than hardware costs and much higher than software fees.
* Ultra-low cost computers and Linux-based solutions are relatively equal in cost to traditional hardware and proprietary software solutions because they require higher labor and replacement costs over a five-year period.
* The total cost of ownership for different computer types and software platforms is relatively consistent.
ICT rankings
Information and Communications for Development 2006: Global Trends and Policies
by Global ICT Department - March 2006
The Global Information Technology Report 2007-2008
by Global ICT Department - March 2006
This World Bank flagship publication addresses the critical role being played by information and communication technologies (ICT) in economic development. It provides a global overview of ICT trends and policies in developing countries, covering issues such as financing infrastructure, the importance of public-private partnerships and effective competition to extending access, using ICT in doing business and formulating national e-strategies. The report includes ICT At-a-Glance tables for 144 economies showing the most recent national data on key indicators of ICT development. The data enable assessment and comparison both over time and across economies to assess ICT capacity, performance, progress and opportunities.
The Global Information Technology Report 2007-2008
Denmark is the most networked economy in the world, followed by Sweden and Switzerland, according to the last edition of The Global Information Technology Report. Among the top ten, the Republic of Korea (9) and, to a lesser extent, the United States (4) post the most notable improvements.
Under the theme Fostering Innovation through Networked Readiness, this year’s Report places a particular focus on the role of networked readiness in spurring innovation.
Published for the seventh consecutive year with record coverage of 127 economies worldwide, the Report has become the world’s most comprehensive and authoritative international assessment of the impact of ICT on the development process and the competitiveness of nations.
The Report is produced by the World Economic Forum in cooperation with INSEAD, the leading international business school, and is sponsored this year by Cisco Systems.
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Get a Behavioral Economist to the Obama team
“The issues we struggle with today are inherently behavioral as never before,” Sendhil Mullainathan, a behavioral economist at Harvard, told me. “It’s impossible to think of the current mortgage crisis without thinking seriously about underlying consumer psychology. And it’s impossible to think of future regulatory fixes without thinking seriously about that issue.”
-Budgets Behaving Badly
Fiscal Expert of the Day- Mr. Fiscal Space
Peter S. Heller
Best known book;
Who Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
Some of his articles;
His Blog- Thinking About Fiscal Space
Multimedia;
What Is the Right Fiscal Policy for Growth
Best known book;
Who Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
Some of his articles;
Pity the Finance Minister: Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-up of Aid Flows
Understanding Fiscal Space
The Budgetary Impact of Privatization: Examples from New Zealand and Prospects for Ireland
The Recurrent Cost Problem: An International Overview
Government Employment and Pay: Some International Comparisons
The Problem of Recurrent Costs in the Budgeting and Planning Process,
What Should Macroeconomists Know about Health Care Policy? A Primer
His Blog- Thinking About Fiscal Space
Multimedia;
What Is the Right Fiscal Policy for Growth
Healthcare costing templates
Developing costing tools - methods guide
Costing Templates
Costing Templates
Obsessive-compulsive disorder: cost template
Depression: costing template
Tuberculosis: costing template
Hypertension - costing template
Bipolar disorder: costing template
Anaemia management in chronic kidney disease: costing template
Familial breast cancer: costing template
Urinary incontinence: costing template
Dementia: costing template
Obesity: costing template
Heavy menstrual bleeding: costing template
Antenatal and postnatal mental health: costing template
Four commonly used methods to increase physical activity: costing template
Brief interventions and referral for smoking cessation: costing template
Prevention of sexually transmitted infections and under 18 conceptions: costing template
Conduct disorder in children - parent-training/education programmes: Costing template and report
Acutely ill patients in hospital: costing template
Head injury: costing template
Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): costing template
Prostate cancer: costing template
Asthma (uncontrolled)- omalizumab: Costing template
Psoriasis - infliximab: Costing template
Head injury: costing template
Stroke: costing template
Irritable bowel syndrome: costing template
Urinary tract infection in children: costing template
What price is life?
If the Hardys lived in the United States or just about any European country other than Britain, Mr. Hardy would most likely get the drug, although he might have to pay part of the cost. A clinical trial showed that the pill, called Sutent, delays cancer progression for six months at an estimated treatment cost of $54,000.
But at that price, Mr. Hardy’s life is not worth prolonging, according to a British government agency, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. The institute, known as NICE, has decided that Britain, except in rare cases, can afford only £15,000, or about $22,750, to save six months of a citizen’s life....
The institute has analyzed the cost-effectiveness of surgical operations, cancer screening tests and medical devices. For example, it found that drug-coated cardiac stents were worth only $450 more than bare-metal ones. In the United States, stent price differences are often far wider....
After consulting a citizens group, the institute decided that the nation should spend the same amount saving or improving the life of a 75-year-old smoker as it would a 5-year-old....
The institute’s decision-making process involves a series of independent assessments, consultations with manufacturers, committee meetings, comment periods for outsiders and appeals that, taken together, Dr. Rawlins described as “procedural justice,” or “muddling through elegantly.” While the institute provides advice, decisions are made by one of three committees made up of doctors, nurses and economists from outside the government.
-British Balance Gain Versus Cost of Latest Drugs
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Bureaucratic Creativity
From a GAO report;
We found that maintenance staff sometimes devise creative solutions, such as the system that the maintenance staff at one site we visited set up to funnel water from a roof leak into a water bottle that then directs the water to a drain. This solution stopped the water from further damaging the building and leaking into areas occupied by staff while deferring the cost of correcting the problem.
Recently from GAO
Wildland Fire Management: Interagency Budget Tool Needs Further Development to Fully Meet Key Objectives
Approaches to Mitigate Freight Congestion
Contract Management: DOD Developed Draft Guidance for Operational Contract Support but Has Not Met All Legislative Requirements
State and Local Fiscal Challenges: Rising Health Care Costs Drive Long-term and Immediate Pressures
Federal Real Property: Government's Fiscal Exposure from Repair and Maintenance Backlogs Is Unclear
Approaches to Mitigate Freight Congestion
Contract Management: DOD Developed Draft Guidance for Operational Contract Support but Has Not Met All Legislative Requirements
State and Local Fiscal Challenges: Rising Health Care Costs Drive Long-term and Immediate Pressures
Federal Real Property: Government's Fiscal Exposure from Repair and Maintenance Backlogs Is Unclear
In 2003, GAO designated federal real property as a high-risk area. In 2007, GAO reported that real-property-holding agencies and the administration had made progress toward managing their real property, but underlying problems, such as backlogs in repair and maintenance, still existed and six agencies reported having over $1 billion in repair and maintenance backlogs. Owning real property creates a fiscal exposure for the government from the expectation that agencies will incur future maintenance and operations costs. GAO was asked to (1) describe how six agencies estimate their repair and maintenance backlogs, (2) determine how these agencies manage their backlogs and the expected future changes in these backlogs, and (3) identify how backlogs have affected operations at some sites. GAO reviewed agency documents, interviewed officials, and visited two sites at each of the six agencies.
Teaching Performance Measurement
If there is one sure sign that performance measurement has at least begun taking root as an official field of academic study, it's the following equation: P = S + T + E + C + M. That confection is the brainchild of Ed Jennings, a professor of public affairs and administration at the University of Kentucky's Martin School of Public Policy and Administration. Translated almost into English, the equation means that performance (P) is a product of government structure (S), program treatments (T), environmental factors (E), client characteristics (C) and managerial actions (M).
Jennings has been in the academic vanguard of teaching results-focused government, and has been thinking long and hard about how to analyze and explain it. "The work I've done is to examine whether it actually makes any difference," Jennings says. The performance equation is something that Jennings teaches his public-administration students. It may seem a bit esoteric to shoehorn the frequently messy work of administration into an equation. But Jennings' students head into the workplace with at least some background in what to expect when their bosses tell them to "manage for results."
-Novices with Numbers
A lesson in Management
"I assembled this team because I am a strong believer in strong personalities and strong opinions. I believe that's how the best decisions are made," Obama said. "One of the dangers in a White House, based on my reading of history, is that you get wrapped up in group-think and everybody agrees with everything and there's no discussion and there are no dissenting views. So I am going to be welcoming a vigorous debate inside the White House.
"But understand, I will be setting policy as president. I will be responsible for the vision that this team carries out, and I will expect them to implement that vision once decisions are made . . . The buck will stop with me."...
The caution: "Obama's favored approach as a senator -- bringing as many smart people as possible into the room and letting them hash out issues -- could prove less workable when urgent executive decisions must be made."
But they quote James P. Pfiffner, a George Mason University professor and author of "The Strategic Presidency," saying Obama might manage such a team more skillfully than Bush would have because he is a better listener. "It's important for the president to have a broad range of alternative perspectives, but he has to be strong enough not to be threatened by people that he doesn't agree with," Pfiffner said.
-The Return of Debate?
Have you heard about the CoST Initiative?
The Construction Sector Transparency Initiative (CoST) Criteria represent seven core requirements that will form the Pilot Phase. These criteria will be reviewed during the Pilot Phase, and will be amended, if necessary, before the design of CoST is finalised. The Criteria are:
1. For public-sector construction projects above an agreed threshold, there is regular disclosure of material project information to a wide audience in a publicly accessible, comprehensive and comprehensible manner.
2. Procuring bodies are subject to a credible audit process and, as far as possible, projects are subject to credible, independent financial and technical audits.
3. The adequacy of material project disclosures and audits are assessed by an independent, objective and technically competent Assurance Team, and reports published. The membership, terms of reference and activities of this team must be publicly disclosed.
4. The application of this approach is extended to the main procuring bodies responsible for public-sector procurement, and related contractors.
5. A Multi-Stakeholder Group (MSG) representing the interests of stakeholders has oversight of the implementation of CoST. The membership, terms of reference and activities of the MSG must be publicly disclosed.
6. Civil society is actively engaged as a participant in the design, monitoring and evaluation of this process.
7. A public, financially sustainable work plan for all the above is developed by the host government, including measurable targets, a timetable for implementation, and an assessment of potential capacity constraints.
Questions on long term fiscal challenges
For Treasury Secretary;
For OMB head;
From the GAO report, Confirmation of Political Appointees: Eliciting Nominees' Views on Management Challenges within Agencies and across Government
As you well know, our nation faces a serious structural fiscal imbalance. A number of other countries issue fiscal sustainability reports to explain and to improve the understanding of the long-term outlook and the magnitude of necessary change. The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board has recently issued an exposure draft on fiscal sustainability reporting for the federal government. How has your experience prepared you to help with such reporting?
While the basic reporting would be on the long-term fiscal sustainability of current spending and tax policies, how would you incorporate alternative scenarios and assumptions—on both the spending and the revenue side—into the report?
For OMB head;
As you well know, our nation faces a serious structural fiscal imbalance, and it is clear that more needs to be done to raise awareness and stimulate debate in the country about how to address it. How are you prepared to help the federal government do this? What would you do to raise awareness and stimulate debate about how to address our nation’s long-term fiscal challenges?
A number of other countries issue fiscal sustainability reports to explain and to improve the understanding of the long-term outlook and the magnitude of necessary change. The Federal Accounting Standards Advisory Board has recently issued an exposure draft on fiscal sustainability reporting for the federal government. How has your experience prepared you to help with such reporting?
OMB is in a unique position to innovate and improve the performance and budgeting reporting to Congress. What types of information have you either relied on or provided to others before that is most useful for decision making? What measures or reporting mechanisms do you think would be most useful for congressional decision makers?
What steps would you take to increase recognition of existing exposures and encourage explicit consideration of the long-term implications of new proposals before the government makes any additional commitments?
The government already uses accrual concepts for credit programs, and agencies have been working for nearly 20 years to refine credit subsidy estimates. Estimating the long-term claims on budgetary resources from government insurance programs and federal retiree health programs also can be difficult. How would you support agencies’ efforts to improve the estimates of these long-term costs?
From the GAO report, Confirmation of Political Appointees: Eliciting Nominees' Views on Management Challenges within Agencies and across Government
Questions Lawmakers should ask the political appointees
Bonus Point: Question for the new Secretary of the Agriculture Department:
**”Forest pests have caused substantial damage in the past and continue to pose a serious threat to the nation’s environment and economy. How have you networked with local, regional, and other organizations such as may be needed to implement cost-effective early warning systems for invasive forest pests, particularly in urban and suburban forests that are at high risk of receiving invasive insects and disease? “
Bonus Point: Question for the new Secretary of the Commerce Department:
** “The 2010 Census is less than 2 years away. What do you think are the key challenges facing its managers, and what advice would you give them to help overcome those challenges?”
-Getting Appointed: Final Exam
Assorted
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."-Upton Sinclair
The Return of Depression Economics
Hoocoodanode?
The greatness of Keynes …
Fiscal Policy Puzzles
Economists Infiltrate the White House; Now What?
One-paragraph Macro
Advice on decision making from Honest Abe
“Think calmly and well, upon this whole subject. If there be an object to hurry any of you, in hot haste, to a step you would never take deliberately, that object will be frustrated by taking time; but no good object can be frustrated by it.”
Getting Appointed: Final Exam
Foreign aid and military intervention, or Statistical modeling, casual inference, and social science
It is time for the monetary authorities to jump into the liquidity trap
Monday, December 1, 2008
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