Timor Leste Budget Time Table

An aggregate fiscal envelope for the budget year and fiscal envelopes by line
ministries and main economic expenditure categories are set annually; changes from
year to year are mainly incremental with few adjustments to reflect the changing
government priorities. In May, the MOF prepares the fiscal envelopes based on the macroeconomic projections and national priorities. The allocation of aggregate fiscal envelope between recurrent and capital
budget is not based on a clearly defined methodology, and the capital budget fiscal envelope
is not allocated to the line ministries individually. Both aggregate and detailed fiscal
envelopes are discussed and endorsed by the COM, followed by the issuance of instructions
in the budget circular to the Organs of State12 to submit their capital budget projects by mid-
June and recurrent budget proposals by end-June. The circular provides guidelines on the
preparation of annual action plans (AAPs), capital projects, new initiatives, and includes
fiscal envelopes of recurrent budgets by line ministries. The MOF provides the unit costs for
formulation of certain expenditures as supplementary guidelines. Line ministries generally
submit budget requests above the provided fiscal envelopes; in 2009, the requests were on
average 35 percent higher.

Economic Growth Officers' Conference

Didn't know USAID had economic growth officers- I wonder what Prof. Easterly would say about it. Anyway I have collated some of the the podcasts of the sessions below- Romer's session is highly recommended.

Technology Drive Growth, Rules Drive Development
Paul Romer, Stanford University
Steve Radelet, Department of State

The Millennium Development Goals: The Road to 2015

Global Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation

Global Climate Change: Leveraging Investment Flows for Mitigation

Reinventing Government: Designing Programs to Enhance Public Sector Effectiveness and Performance
H.E. Minister Imad Fakhoury, Ministry of Public Sector Development, Government of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
Ms. Widad Qutaishat, Results-Oriented Government Component Lead, USAID/Jordan Fiscal Reform II Project, DAI
Dr. Emil Bolongaita, Director, Management Systems International
Moderator: Dr. Mark Gallagher, Chief of Party, USAID/Jordan Fiscal Reform II Project, DAI

A Behavioral Approach to Economic Development
Sendhil Mullainathan, Poverty Action Lab and Harvard University
Michael Kremer, Harvard University

Government ICT Applications that Save Businesses Time and Money
Valentina Mintah, Crown Agents
Efrain Laureano, Chemonics International
Judy Payne, USAID/EGAT/I&E/ICT

Accelerating Job Creation and Growth
Steve Kapsos, ILO/Geneva
Mary Hobbs, USAID/Kosovo
Eduardo Tugendhat, CARANA Corporation
Lili Stern, U.S. Department of Labor

Access to Innovative Financial Services

World Bank’s Doing Business Indicators: Lessons Learned and New Directions
Svetlana Baguadinova, Doing Business Project, The World Bank
Rita Ramalho, Enterprise Analysis Unit, The World Bank
Carolin Geginat, The World Bank

Monitoring and Evaluation for Economic Growth

Shared Growth Diagnostics: Finding the Binding Constraint to Growth and Poverty Reduction

USAID Economic Growth Programming: Ultimate Impacts

Wanted - Costing Experts!

Cost accounting is relatively overlooked area in Central Finance Agencies in low income countries- which I think aught to be an important area if we want to progress to a comprehensive MTEF. The following job advertisement for an expert to Brazil, sounds interesting;

The objectives of the project are to (i) implement the public cost system in phases, starting with four pilot entities (health, education, prisons, and social assistance); (ii) develop a cost methodology adequate to the public services at the state level; (iii) organize seminars, courses, and other training events to educate the state officials on how to prepare and use cost information; (iv) document the cost methodology used in the existing projects; (v) prepare guidelines for external dissemination of cost data; and (vi) prepare progress reports.

Recently from GAO

International Monetary Fund: Lending Programs Allow for Negotiations and Are Consistent with Economic Literature;

IMF-supported programs in the four countries GAO reviewed--Liberia, Zambia, Hungary, and Iceland--include different sets of objectives, targets, and conditions that reflect country circumstances, based on negotiations between the IMF staff and country officials. In postconflict Liberia, the program focuses on rebuilding capacity and contains a target for maintaining a balanced budget with no borrowing. In Zambia--a country negatively affected by the recent economic crisis--the IMF-supported program is designed to increase economic growth, reduce poverty, and improve governance. Hungary, which faced a rising risk of default, has a program that focuses on restoring investor confidence while reducing debt and expenditures. A banking and currency collapse in Iceland precipitated the IMF-supported program, which contains some controversial approaches to monetary policy and banking reform. All four countries are making progress but face challenges in implementing conditions or achieving targets in their IMF-supported programs. The macroeconomic policies in IMF-supported programs are broadly consistent with the findings of the empirical literature GAO reviewed, although this literature lacks precise guidance for setting policy targets. For low-income countries, empirical evidence generally suggests inflation is detrimental to economic growth after it exceeds a critical threshold, which is broadly consistent with the inflation targets included in the IMF-supported programs we reviewed. For middle- and high-income countries, the literature identified specific policy weaknesses in advance of crises, including high inflation, high public indebtedness, and low international reserves. These weaknesses are consistent with the policies upon which the IMF focuses in the 13 programs in middle- to high-income countries GAO reviewed.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Made Progress on Schedule and Operational Control Tools, but Needs to Prioritize Remaining System Requirements

Operation Iraqi Freedom: Preliminary Observations on DOD Planning for the Drawdown of U.S. Forces from Iraq;

DOD has yet to fully determine its future needs for contracted services. Second, the potential costs and other concerns of transitioning key contracts may outweigh potential benefits. Third, DOD lacks sufficient numbers of contract oversight personnel. Fourth, key decisions about the disposition of some equipment have yet to be made. Fifth, there are longstanding incompatibility issues among the information technology systems that may undermine the equipment retrograde process. And sixth, DOD lacks precise visibility over its inventory of some equipment and shipping containers.

Millennium Challenge Corporation: MCC Has Addressed a Number of Implementation Challenges, but Needs to Improve Financial Controls and Infrastructure Planning

Industry best practices and past GAO work have shown that conducting design reviews and updating cost estimates prior to contract solicitation help to ensure that projects can be successfully bid and constructed.

Bureau of Prisons: Methods for Cost Estimation Largely Reflect Best Practices, but Quantifying Risks Would Enhance Decision Making;

BOP uses three general steps to estimate costs for its annual budget submission: (1) estimating cost increases to maintain service levels, such as inmate medical care and utilities; (2) projecting inmate population changes for the budget year and for several years into the future using a modeling program that incorporates data on the current inmate population and estimated incoming population and associated sentences; and (3) estimating costs to both provide additional capacity to house projected inmate population growth and implement new programs, such as activating new prisons. BOP's methods for cost estimation largely reflect best practices outlined in GAO's Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide

Troubled Asset Relief Program: Continued Stewardship Needed as Treasury Develops Strategies for Monitoring and Divesting Financial Interests in Chrysler and GM

U.S. Government Accountability Office: Performance and Accountability Report Fiscal Year 2009

Feasibility study of PFM regional training center

For the MENA region

Affordable Computing for Schools in Developing Countries

Total Cost of Ownership (TCO): A Study of Models of Affordable Computing for Schools in Developing Countries

"Total cost of ownership" (TCO) is often underestimated, sometimes grossly, when calculating costs of ICT in education initiatives in developing countries. Estimates of initial costs to purchase equipment to overall costs over time vary widely; typically they lie between 10-25% of total cost. That said, there is a dearth of reliable data, and useful tools, to help guide education decisionmakers in their assessments of the true costs of educational technology initiatives.

A recent whitepaper from Vital Wave Consulting, "Affordable Computing for Schools in Developing Countries: A Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Model for Education Officials", and accompanying case study of ICT in education initiatives in India , provide further insight and perspective on this important and often controversial issue. The white paper discusses key issues related to technology use in education and presents several major findings, including:

* Academic research and private-sector investment decisions indicate that computers in schools contribute to improved academic outcomes, boost a nation’s economic competitiveness, and attract job-creating economic investments.
* Governments need to consider the entire cost of school computing solutions, rather than merely the initial expenses. A total cost of ownership model takes into account recurrent and hidden costs such as teacher training, support and maintenance, and the cost of replacing hardware over a five-year period.
* Support and training are recurrent costs that constitute two of the three largest costs in the total cost of ownership model. They are greater than hardware costs and much higher than software fees.
* Ultra-low cost computers and Linux-based solutions are relatively equal in cost to traditional hardware and proprietary software solutions because they require higher labor and replacement costs over a five-year period.
* The total cost of ownership for different computer types and software platforms is relatively consistent.

Healthcare costing templates

Developing costing tools - methods guide

Costing Templates

Obsessive-compulsive disorder: cost template

Depression: costing template

Tuberculosis: costing template

Hypertension - costing template

Bipolar disorder: costing template

Anaemia management in chronic kidney disease: costing template

Familial breast cancer: costing template

Urinary incontinence: costing template

Dementia: costing template


Obesity: costing template

Heavy menstrual bleeding: costing template

Antenatal and postnatal mental health: costing template

Four commonly used methods to increase physical activity: costing template

Brief interventions and referral for smoking cessation: costing template

Prevention of sexually transmitted infections and under 18 conceptions: costing template

Conduct disorder in children - parent-training/education programmes: Costing template and report

Acutely ill patients in hospital: costing template

Head injury: costing template

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): costing template

Prostate cancer: costing template

Asthma (uncontrolled)- omalizumab: Costing template

Psoriasis - infliximab: Costing template

Head injury: costing template

Stroke: costing template

Irritable bowel syndrome: costing template

Urinary tract infection in children: costing template

What price is life?

If the Hardys lived in the United States or just about any European country other than Britain, Mr. Hardy would most likely get the drug, although he might have to pay part of the cost. A clinical trial showed that the pill, called Sutent, delays cancer progression for six months at an estimated treatment cost of $54,000.

But at that price, Mr. Hardy’s life is not worth prolonging, according to a British government agency, the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence. The institute, known as NICE, has decided that Britain, except in rare cases, can afford only £15,000, or about $22,750, to save six months of a citizen’s life....

The institute has analyzed the cost-effectiveness of surgical operations, cancer screening tests and medical devices. For example, it found that drug-coated cardiac stents were worth only $450 more than bare-metal ones. In the United States, stent price differences are often far wider....

After consulting a citizens group, the institute decided that the nation should spend the same amount saving or improving the life of a 75-year-old smoker as it would a 5-year-old....

The institute’s decision-making process involves a series of independent assessments, consultations with manufacturers, committee meetings, comment periods for outsiders and appeals that, taken together, Dr. Rawlins described as “procedural justice,” or “muddling through elegantly.” While the institute provides advice, decisions are made by one of three committees made up of doctors, nurses and economists from outside the government.

-British Balance Gain Versus Cost of Latest Drugs

How would an MTEF be like in Middle Ages

Even restricting the application of the principle of opportunity cost to just one facet, such as castle building in the High Middle Ages, involves many difficulties. Taxation, budgeting, and spending in the Middle Ages can only be described as haphazard, or at least they appear so because of the paucity of records.

It would be very interesting to know the sums spent by medieval monarchs on fortifications in their countries. It is known that cities gave enormous sums for building walls and ramparts, and for digging moats. Unfortunately there is a total lack of information about costs for this period.

This quotation, from a standard work on the military history of the age, reveals some frustration of the study of the period. Fortunately, progress has been made, and even as debate regarding the exact numbers will continue, a number of deductions can be made about the labor and capital cost necessary to construct medieval fortifications. About the overall cost there is little dispute. Medieval rulers had the greatest difficulties in paying for their wars, and powerful monarchs had no less trouble despite initially starting with more. “All were driven to desperate expedients to make ends meet.” Worse, possession of more power and territory gave one more to defend. Castles and troops were both necessary, and this led to every conceivable way being devised to raise money. “Since the time of Cicero and Tacitus to the fifteenth century and beyond, authors often asserted that the tranquility of nations was impossible without armies, armies without soldiers’ wages, or wages without tribute.”

The result of the search for funds has been described as “less a system of taxation than a system of plunder,” and this was no metaphor. In England, for example, goods were sometimes seized from merchants and only released after “tax” was paid. And it was never enough. Despite the most vigorous tax collections England had ever known, Edward I (r. 1272–1307) constantly outran his financial resources. Between 1294 and 1297 wars with Scotland, France, and Wales required such heavy war levies that laity and clergy alike rebelled, leading to a major constitutional crisis. This was not the result of mere royal greed; bad policy is another matter. In Edward’s last years, the Wardrobe, as the department that paid the army’s bills was called, rarely had a thousand pounds at any given moment, while earlier in his reign it had been able to send its paymasters sums as large as £5,000 at once.

Credit was no permanent solution. Since the twelfth century credit had been steadily expanding across Europe. Tempted, Edward I took two steps: he borrowed, usually from Italian bankers, and he did not repay them, at least not completely. His first bankers, the Riccardi, failed to collect some £18,924; the Frescobaldi firm was shorted some £25,000. It did little good. At his death, Edward I left a debt of some £200,000, almost four times the entire annual royal revenue. Justly, some of this could be attributed to the policies of a king who not only made war constantly but pursued policies almost guaranteed to lead to further wars. Unsurprisingly, periods of peace led to dramatic improvements in the condition of the treasury. But there was more to the matter than the behavior of an overly, and overtly, aggressive king. Far more interesting about Edward I is that, despite running repeated campaigns in France, Wales, and Scotland, he nevertheless chose to plow fortunes into the building of castles

Source: Castles, Battles, and Bombs: How Economics Explains Military History
Jurgen Brauer and Hubert van Tuyll

Recommended;
INTEGRATING DEFENSE INTO PUBLIC EXPENDITURE WORK