Showing posts with label Econometrics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Econometrics. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Why is Mr Tufte going to Washington

I'm doing this because I like accountability and transparency, and I believe in public service. And it is the complete opposite of everything else I do. Maybe I'll learn something. The practical consequence is that I will probably go to Washington several days each month, in addition to whatever homework and phone meetings are necessary.

-Mr Tufte

So Obama hired Edward Tufte;

Though often cast as a free-floating information guru, Mr. Tufte has a highly specific mission: on March 5, he was appointed by President Obama to a panel to advise the Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, which monitors the way the $787 billion in the stimulus package is being spent...

“Political practice today too often skips right by evidence,” he said by e-mail. “When I listen to True Believers (left or right) talk about the problems that governments are seeking to solve, I keep muttering to myself, ‘How boring, it’s more complicated than that.’ And those who best know that it’s more complicated than that are public servants.”

The board has two missions: to root out waste, fraud and abuse in spending and to inform the American public how the stimulus money is being spent...

In an e-mail message, Mr. Tufte recalled the meeting and said that generally his advice had been to add more information to the site so that a visitor could see things in context. “It shouldn’t look like a government Web site, and it shouldn’t look like a corporate Web site,” he said. “This is a reporting thing — about factual, credible reporting.”...

Jerry Brito, a senior research fellow at George Mason University, has been monitoring the stimulus at his site, stimuluswatch.org.

“What we want is the raw data. We don’t need a beautiful site,” Mr. Brito said.

In fact, he says that recovery.gov is too flashy and too crowded, and uses maps too much instead of simple tables. “Tufte can do a lot of good here,” he said. “There is a lot of low-hanging fruit.”

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Randomised Trials for PFM Reforms?

Not quiet. Tim Harford has an interesting column urging governments to adopt randomised trials more widely.

Is Jamie Oliver right to emphasise healthy school meals? Run a trial. Should young offenders be sent to boot camp, or to meet victims of crime? Run a trial. What can we do to persuade households to use less electricity? Run a trial...

When the UK government recently introduced the “synthetic phonics” method of teaching young children to read, they were told by Carole Torgerson, an evaluation expert at the University of York, that they could easily bolster the slim evidence base by randomising which schools joined the programme first. They didn’t. (More encouragingly, Ms Torgerson has been commissioned to evaluate maths teaching.)

Some people feel queasy at talk of “experimentation” in the classroom, prison or benefit office – but politicians experiment on us all the time with their latest policy wheezes. We learn little or nothing because the experiments are badly designed.

What is missing is the political demand for tests of what really works. Too many policies on education, welfare and criminal justice are just so much homeopathy: cute-sounding stories about what works leaning more on faith than on evidence. Politicians and civil servants, faced with some fancy new idea, should get into the habit of asking for a proper randomised trial. And we, as citizens, should be equally demanding....

Trial registers also feed into systematic review bodies such as the Cochrane Collaboration, which is an international offshoot of a National Health Service initiative. In less than two decades, the Cochrane Collaboration has published 4,000 systematic reviews of medical treatments, digging up data from unpublished trials, and providing the information to save many lives. A parallel body for social policy has far fewer trials to evaluate


For Discussion: What are typical training programs on randomised trials for policy makers?

Related:
There is a smarter way to cut public spending

Executive Training: Evaluating Social Programs

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Animal Spirits come to IMF and World Bank

Some popular titles at IMF and World Bank;

Animal spirits : how human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism / George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller.

Private sector investment in infrastructure : project finance, PPP projects and risks / by Jeffrey Delmon

Event history analysis with Stata
Blossfeld, Hans-Peter.

Wars, guns, and votes : democracy in dangerous places / Paul Collier.

Trade shocks in developing countries / [edited by] Paul Collier and Jan Willem Gunning and associates.

Value at risk : the new benchmark for managing financial risk / Philippe Jorion

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Book recommendation

Best Practices in Quantitative Methods
Jason W. Osborne, Ph.D., Editor

The use and misuse of computers in education

The use and misuse of computers in education : evidence from a randomized experiment in Colombia

Summary: This paper presents the evaluation of the program Computers for Education. The program aims to integrate computers, donated by the private sector, into the teaching of language in public schools. The authors conduct a two-year randomized evaluation of the program using a sample of 97 schools and 5,201 children. Overall, the program seems to have had little effect on students' test scores and other outcomes. These results are consistent across grade levels, subjects, and gender. The main reason for these results seems to be the failure to incorporate the computers into the educational process. Although the program increased the number of computers in the treatment schools and provided training to the teachers on how to use the computers in their classrooms, surveys of both teachers and students suggest that teachers did not incorporate the computers into their curriculum.

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Measuring the Service Output of U.S. Commercial Banks

The Value of Risk: Measuring the Service Output of U.S. Commercial Banks
Rather than charging direct fees, banks often charge implicitly for their services via interest spreads. As a result, much of bank output has to be estimated indirectly. In contrast to current statistical practice, dynamic optimizing models of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find that between 1997 and 2007, in the U.S. National Accounts, on average, bank output is overestimated by 21 percent and GDP is overestimated by 0.3 percent. Moreover, compared with current methods, our new estimates imply more plausible estimates of the share of capital in income and the return on fixed capital.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Recently from the Fund

Fundamentals at Odds? The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar;
Summary: The real effective exchange rate of the dollar is close to its minimum level for the past 4decades (as of September 2008). At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and current account deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, wouldcontribute to a further accumulation of U.S. external liabilities. The paper discusses the tension between these two aspects of the dollar assessment, and what factors can help reconcile them. It focuses in particular on the terms of trade, adjustment lags, and measurement issues related to both the real effective exchange rate and the current account balance.


Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets

Summary: Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen

Sunday, November 9, 2008

A useful course for budget professionals

A workshop on productivity and efficiency measurement will be taught at IGIDR, Bombay, from 2 to 4 January, 2009

Data Envelopment Analysis: The Methodological Foundations

Session 1: Measuring Technical Efficiency – Output and Input-oriented Approaches

Session 2: Constant and Variable Returns to Scale: Measuring Scale Efficiency

Session 3: Efficiency Measurement using Market Prices: Cost and Profit Efficiencies

Session 4: Measuring Productivity Change over Time: The Malmquist Productivity Index