Thursday, November 25, 2010

Timor Leste Budget Time Table


An aggregate fiscal envelope for the budget year and fiscal envelopes by line
ministries and main economic expenditure categories are set annually; changes from
year to year are mainly incremental with few adjustments to reflect the changing
government priorities. In May, the MOF prepares the fiscal envelopes based on the macroeconomic projections and national priorities. The allocation of aggregate fiscal envelope between recurrent and capital
budget is not based on a clearly defined methodology, and the capital budget fiscal envelope
is not allocated to the line ministries individually. Both aggregate and detailed fiscal
envelopes are discussed and endorsed by the COM, followed by the issuance of instructions
in the budget circular to the Organs of State12 to submit their capital budget projects by mid-
June and recurrent budget proposals by end-June. The circular provides guidelines on the
preparation of annual action plans (AAPs), capital projects, new initiatives, and includes
fiscal envelopes of recurrent budgets by line ministries. The MOF provides the unit costs for
formulation of certain expenditures as supplementary guidelines. Line ministries generally
submit budget requests above the provided fiscal envelopes; in 2009, the requests were on
average 35 percent higher.

Timor-Leste, PFM consultants heaven!

Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: Public Financial Management-Performance Report
Timor-Leste: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)-Fiscal Transparency Module

Highlights from the ROSC;
There is no clear and simple citizen’s guide to the budget.

 Short term recommendations;
  • Initiate identification and costing of new government initiatives in the budget, both on the expenditure and revenue side, and identify recurring costs of public investment for the medium term. (2.1.3 paragraph 40)
  • Require donors to provide estimates of planned expenditure volumes on a multiyear basis (but not on individual projects), and include these in the multiyear fiscal presentation and the expenditure projections in the budget. (2.1.5 paragraph 47)
  • Start building capacity in costing and analytic review of capital projects and program expenditure. (2.1.1 paragraph 34)
  • Include in the budget documents analysis of revenue and expenditure outturns compared to plan, for the three prior years to the budget year. (3.1.2 paragraph 63)
  • Publish a clear and simple summary guide to the budget in Tetum and Portuguese to inform the population. (3.2.1 paragraph 72)
  • Specify in the financial regulations the process and conditions for the access to contingency reserve funds to prevent use for other purposes. (2.2.3 paragraph 55)

 Medium Term Recommendations;
-Strengthen capacity in basic macrofiscal forecasting and use of the financial programming model. Document the macroeconomic framework. Basic macroeconomic assumptions underlying the budget estimates should be published at an early stage of the budget cycle and clearly presented in the budget documents. Extend the macrofiscal framework towards the medium term by estimating the main revenue and expenditure flows over the medium term; develop of a medium-term fiscal framework. (2.1.2 paragraphs 36 and 37)
-Develop a medium-term PIP with clear principles for the evaluation, prioritization, and approval of investment projects. Capacity building and/or buying in cost-benefit analysis in the context of multiyear investment projects is essential. (2.1.1 paragraph
34)
- Include in the timeline for budget preparation an extended period for line ministries to prepare and for the MOF to analyze and discuss the rationale and costing of the budget. For the latter, additional review capacity in MOF is needed to verify costing and challenge the recurrent and capital project budget submissions requests and correspondent links. (2.1.1 paragraph 35)
-Review and further develop the program classification of expenditure and better link it to line ministry policies; use it initially for budget planning and presentational purposes; extend the functional classification to include subfunctions and items.(3.2.2 paragraph 73)
-Strengthen the strategic planning capacity in the prime minister’s office, MOF, and line ministries, and establish clear links to the AAPs and line ministries’ budgets and
include in budget documents additional analysis on government priorities, programs, and targets. (3.2.4 paragraph 74)
-Cost existing policies and clearly separate them from new policies in the preparation of budget and forward estimates. This would enable the presentation of “baseline” expenditures at the start of the budget process. (2.1.3 paragraph 39)
-Develop a more robust methodology to expand production of baseline and budget estimates over the medium term.
-Decide on line ministry expenditure ceilings in the COM at the start of the budget cycle on the basis of baseline estimates, new expenditure initiatives and possible savings targets. These ceilings should be provided to line ministries in the budget circular, and cover both recurrent and capital expenditure
-Develop presentations in the budget in the following areas: fiscal risks, quasi-fiscal activities (including by petroleum companies), and contingent liabilities. (3.1.3 paragraph 66);
-Develop an overview of existing and new tax expenditures in the budget. (1.2.1 paragraph 22)
-The MOF should develop or commission occasional reports on long term expenditure and revenue trends. Such analyses would provide a good framework to address structural issues like population growth and the costs associated with this, or the limitations of natural resources. This would be particularly important in the preparation of the Vision 2020 plan update. (3.2.4 paragraph 74)

Quote of the Day- On the Quality of Budget Speeches

The budget speech was additionally turned into a management tool by Yashwant Sinha. Every sentence of the budget speech is put into a spreadsheet, responsibility for implementation is assigned, and quarterly reports are produced about progress of implementation. Through this, the budget speech has become the workplan of government for the year. What gets announced in the budget speech tends to get done. Few things get done in the year other than what is announced in the budget speech.
- Ajah Shah, Which type of budget speech is this?

Sri Lanka Budget 2011

Skimming through Sri Lanka budget speech;

-I undertook a Pre Budget Review of all 25 districts and provincial level work. I wish to share some evidence of progress. Sri Lanka’s poverty which was 15.2 percent in 2006 has declined to 7.6 percent in 2010. Most important development is that poverty in rural areas has declined from 15.7 percent to 7.6 percent while in the estate areas, it has declined from 32 percent to 9.2 percent. We will direct our strategies to reduce poverty below 5 percent within the next 5 years...

-All island unemployment which was 7.2 percent in 2005 has dropped to 5.8
percent by 2009.
In addition, earnings of our farmers and the labour force have increased. In 2005, farmers could not secure even Rs.10 for a kilo of paddy they produced. We managed to maintain it in the range of Rs. 24 – 28 per kilo.

-Our country is ranked first in the world in the health and survival indicators, sixth in the political empowerment indicators and among the top 20 in the world in gender equality indicators as well as a location attractive for outsourcing. Our performance in education and health is above average.

-The export potential of value added, branded exports has been estimated in excess of US$ 5 billion over the medium term.

-Tourism should be a billion dollar business. Although
tourist arrivals have picked up and expected to be around 600,000 this year, earnings from tourism shows only a moderate increase. This is largely because the industry as a whole is underpriced. Therefore, I propose to impose a levy of US$ 20 per bed on all five star hotels which charge a room rate that is less than US$ 125 per night from January 2011 in order to compel all hotels to charge better rates.

-We must get ready to facilitate 2.5 million high spending tourists by 2016. Tourists must see our richness and diversity. Over the next few years the capacity of this industry need to be tripled from the current level of around 15,000 rooms.

-Sri Lanka is fast emerging as a niche global destination attracting outsourcing of IT and BPO services. It has become the fifth largest exporter. At present, the country is ranked seventh among the 50 best emerging global cities that attract outsourcing...The Government has launched various programs to increase ICT literacy to 75 percent by 2016.Our aim is to make this industry a US$ 2 billion export activity by 2016.

-our key goal in this decade of development is to improve our productivity by 5-6 percent per annum.

-SriLankan Airline and Mihin Lanka will be expanded with new aircrafts to increase the fleet to 30 by 2012. I propose to exempt SriLankan and Mihin Lanka from all taxes for a period of 10 years to strengthen the two enterprise

-nearly 3 million Sri Lankans are engaged in overseas employment.
The remittance income to the country is expected to be nearly US$ 4 billion this year. However, there is no proper social security system for these people when they reach old age. Therefore, I propose to set up an Overseas Employees’ Pension Fund (OEPF).

-My attempt in this Budget is to sustain our achievements and manage future risks in our economy. We have achieved an economic growth rate of near 8 percent. Inflation has stabilized at around 6 percent. Poverty has come down to 7.6 percent and unemployment to 5 percent. These are all achievements within 5 years. This argues well in favour of our development strategy. The Central Bank has built up US$7 billion reserves. Our banking system has a further US$ 1.5 billion. So the economy has sufficient external assets. All these are achievements that all of us must be proud of. A low rate of inflation of around 5-6 percent, economic growth rate of around 7-8 percent and a society free from poverty are our medium term targets.

-raising income beyond US$ 4,000 per capita is not the only objective in our strategy. People need equitable opportunities to enjoy such high income.

For Discussion
: How do you rate this budget speech?

Related:
Budget Speech 2011

2011 budget to introduce fiscal reforms
"The 7.5 percent budget deficit target should be achieved comfortably
as the expenditure would be the same like last year and the revenue is
picking up," Jayasundera said. He said economic growth would be close
to 7 percent, as earlier forecast.

"The reserves are more than the IMF target. I am optimistic of the IMF
releasing both the third and fourth tranche together," he said.

Jayasundara said he expects tourism revenue to grow to $1 billion
annually from its present $400 million, and foreign direct investment
to boom to $1.5-2 billion annually from around $600 million now
.

He said foreign investment inflows should put upward pressure on the
rupee currency. "I see a higher probability for appreciation than
depreciation," he said.
The six areas where the budget speech has to deliver
Core public goods are international relations, defence, police and judiciary. These are the foundations of civilised existence. They are pure public goods in that everyone benefits when these are done properly. When law and order conditions are good, a new born child benefits from these without imposing any new cost upon the country.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

The Deficit Commission and Enactment Strategies

For Discussion- Should Public Commissions include concrete implementation strategies in their reports as David Brooks alleges below;

The report from the chairmen lists some of the best ways to raise revenue and cut spending. But it comes with no enactment strategy. In this climate, asking politicians to end the mortgage deduction and tax employer health care plans and raise capital gains taxes and cut benefits for affluent seniors is like asking them to jump on a buzzing sack full of live grenades. They won’t do it.

Related:
Deficit commission leaders are not addressing the root causes of the long-term deficit

The PowerPoint

So, About That Deficit Commission ...
Tax revenues capped at 21% of GDP

The deficit commission report
Mankiw is happy, Krugman and DeLong are upset.

Panel Seeks Social Security Cuts and Higher Taxes

The deficit commission’s plan